Mon Nov 9 · 8:15 pm ET · model lines ready 12:52 pm · injury feed 0h ago
MARKET NOT OPEN YETthis game trades with real money
Kalshi has not posted the bets for this game yet — for Thursday night games they usually appear Thursday morning. Our model has already drawn its lines: each one below is the deepest number we would happily buy — a result the player beats about 9 times out of 10. At 9:30 am we compare every posted line to these and buy only what clears the bar. If nothing does, we buy nothing — and that is a decision, not a shrug.
The lines we want
How to read a row: the bar is a ruler from his floor to his ceiling. The fat segment (labelled “likely range, 8 in 10”) is where he’s expected to land 8 times out of 10, the notch is the model’s middle guess, the black flag is the line we’d buy, and the green mark is the 9-in-10 safe floor. Blue ticks are 7 games the model replayed for him. “Our guess” is the model’s middle case; “model raw low” is the model’s own untested floor. When the green line sits left of the bar, that’s deliberate: the model’s own low end ran too high in testing, so the floor we actually bet on is deeper — we trust the tested number, not the model’s.