settled single-market positions: 14 | archive tickers matched: 0
fill band n hit avg fill edge pts
70-79 3 1.00 77.3 +22.7
80-89 3 0.67 84.0 -17.3
90+ 1 1.00 90.0 +10.0
<70 7 0.86 55.5 +30.3
Brier (implied from fill): 0.1728 (lower better; 0.25 = coin)
Verdict: sizing decision due when 4 weeks of these tables exist (roadmap 2026-12-01).Profit per $1 = for every dollar we bet on a kind of bet, what it gives back on average. It’s the fair way to compare bet types — a 60¢ bet and a 95¢ bet win at different rates, so win-percentage alone misleads.
Beating the closing price = did we buy cheaper than the last price before kickoff (in cents). A week of wins can be luck; this is the earliest honest sign that we actually know something.
Odds honesty check = when we say 80%, does it happen 8 times out of 10? Closer to 0 is better; 0.25 means we’re no better than a coin flip.
| fit | value |
|---|---|
| fitted | 2026-11-03 |
| odds trim | subtract 0.048 above 0.9 (raw model ran hot) |
| games measured | 52841 |
| fitted from file | a76cca493f6f1bfb… |
Practice money only. Bets only before kickoff. Once bought, we hold to the final score — no panic selling.
CERTAIN = the line sits under the safety number (90+ out of 100 hit it) → $30. STRONG = comfortably inside our projection, hits about 75 to 88 out of 100 → $20. We never bet anything we rate under 70%.
We keep lowering the bet line until only an injury could ruin it. Max $75 on one player, $150 on one game, never the same market twice in 5 days. Thin lines (under 20 traded) are off limits. Every number is rebuilt from actual box scores, never from summary pages.