2026-11-02 · 20:15 ET · bets scored at 15:06 · injury feed 7h ago · price history kept: 2 days
CERTAIN = we expect this to hit more than 90 times out of 100. STRONG = about 75 to 88 out of 100. How to read a row: the bar shows the player’s likely range, the marker is the bet line, “buy for” is the price, and “traded” is how many contracts changed hands (under 20 traded = price too thin to trust). Each row’s bar labels itself: numbers at the ends are his likely range, the marker says BET and the number you bet, the green mark says SAFE, blue ticks are the model’s 7 simulated games for him.
Jaxon Smith-Njigbareceiving yards 100+STRONG
odds it hits 86% model first guess 86%buy for 50¢ gap 1¢ 9.9k tradedour call vs price +0.49-in-10 safe line 29.9 · low guess 87.8
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 2.2263/snap x 58 snaps = 128.1 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread -3.0 -> rush-rate x1.01 -> carries x1.00
opponent YAC/rec allowed 5.9 -> x1.02
Rome Odunzereceiving yards 30+STRONGTICKET
odds it hits 93% model first guess 100%buy for 64¢ gap 3¢ 208 tradedour call vs price +0.39-in-10 safe line 11.3 · low guess 33.2
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 0.9196/snap x 61 snaps = 56.1 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread +3.0 -> rush-rate x0.99 -> carries x1.00
opponent YAC/rec allowed 4.0 -> x0.98
Emanuel Wilsonrushing yards 20+STRONG
odds it hits 80% model first guess 80%buy for 52¢ gap 1¢ 10.3k tradedour call vs price +0.39-in-10 safe line 8.5 · low guess 14.6
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 1.9542/snap x 26 snaps = 50.2 (n=7)
band from 6 scaled game-days
script: spread -3.0 -> rush-rate x1.01 -> carries x1.00
opponent CHI allows rush-rate 0.35 (lg 0.42) -> x0.97
Jaxon Smith-Njigbareceiving yards 90+STRONG
odds it hits 86% model first guess 86%buy for 60¢ gap 1¢ 491 tradedour call vs price +0.39-in-10 safe line 29.9 · low guess 87.8
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 2.2263/snap x 58 snaps = 128.1 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread -3.0 -> rush-rate x1.01 -> carries x1.00
opponent YAC/rec allowed 5.9 -> x1.02
Jaxon Smith-Njigbareceiving yards 80+STRONGTICKET
odds it hits 93% model first guess 100%buy for 67¢ gap 3¢ 141 tradedour call vs price +0.39-in-10 safe line 29.9 · low guess 87.8
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 2.2263/snap x 58 snaps = 128.1 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread -3.0 -> rush-rate x1.01 -> carries x1.00
opponent YAC/rec allowed 5.9 -> x1.02
Jaxon Smith-Njigbareceiving yards 70+STRONG
odds it hits 93% model first guess 100%buy for 75¢ gap 3¢ 663 tradedour call vs price +0.29-in-10 safe line 29.9 · low guess 87.8
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 2.2263/snap x 58 snaps = 128.1 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread -3.0 -> rush-rate x1.01 -> carries x1.00
opponent YAC/rec allowed 5.9 -> x1.02
Jaxon Smith-Njigbareceptions 7+STRONG
odds it hits 74% model first guess 74%buy for 59¢ gap 3¢ 161 tradedour call vs price +0.29-in-10 safe line 3.8 · low guess 5.9
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 0.1472/snap x 58 snaps = 8.5 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread -3.0 -> rush-rate x1.01 -> carries x1.00
opponent comp-rate allowed 0.88 -> x1.10
Luther Burden IIIreceiving yards 30+STRONGTICKET
odds it hits 93% model first guess 100%buy for 78¢ gap 3¢ 30 tradedour call vs price +0.29-in-10 safe line 12.2 · low guess 35.9
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 1.3890/snap x 47 snaps = 65.8 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread +3.0 -> rush-rate x0.99 -> carries x1.00
opponent YAC/rec allowed 4.0 -> x0.98
Luther Burden IIIreceiving yards 40+STRONG
odds it hits 82% model first guess 82%buy for 67¢ gap 4¢ 31 tradedour call vs price +0.19-in-10 safe line 12.2 · low guess 35.9
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 1.3890/snap x 47 snaps = 65.8 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread +3.0 -> rush-rate x0.99 -> carries x1.00
opponent YAC/rec allowed 4.0 -> x0.98
Jaxon Smith-Njigbareceiving yards 60+STRONG
odds it hits 93% model first guess 100%buy for 82¢ gap 3¢ 339 tradedour call vs price +0.19-in-10 safe line 29.9 · low guess 87.8
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 2.2263/snap x 58 snaps = 128.1 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread -3.0 -> rush-rate x1.01 -> carries x1.00
opponent YAC/rec allowed 5.9 -> x1.02
Luther Burden IIIreceptions 3+STRONGTICKET
odds it hits 93% model first guess 100%buy for 82¢ gap 1¢ 26 tradedour call vs price +0.19-in-10 safe line 2.4 · low guess 3.8
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 0.1049/snap x 47 snaps = 5.0 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread +3.0 -> rush-rate x0.99 -> carries x1.00
opponent comp-rate allowed 0.97 -> x1.10
Cooper Kuppreceiving yards 10+STRONGTICKET
odds it hits 93% model first guess 100%buy for 83¢ gap 3¢ 23 tradedour call vs price +0.19-in-10 safe line 5.1 · low guess 14.9
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 0.6754/snap x 46 snaps = 31.0 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread -3.0 -> rush-rate x1.01 -> carries x1.00
opponent YAC/rec allowed 5.9 -> x1.02
Rome Odunzereceptions 2+STRONG
odds it hits 93% model first guess 100%buy for 85¢ gap 1¢ 23 tradedour call vs price +0.19-in-10 safe line 1.8 · low guess 2.8
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 0.0533/snap x 61 snaps = 3.3 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread +3.0 -> rush-rate x0.99 -> carries x1.00
opponent comp-rate allowed 0.97 -> x1.10
Jaxon Smith-Njigbareceptions 5+STRONG
odds it hits 93% model first guess 100%buy for 86¢ gap 4¢ 29 tradedour call vs price +0.19-in-10 safe line 3.8 · low guess 5.9
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 0.1472/snap x 58 snaps = 8.5 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread -3.0 -> rush-rate x1.01 -> carries x1.00
opponent comp-rate allowed 0.88 -> x1.10
D'Andre Swiftrushing yards 40+STRONG
odds it hits 82% model first guess 82%buy for 75¢ gap 9¢ 33 tradedour call vs price +0.19-in-10 safe line 23.1 · low guess 39.8
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 1.5981/snap x 46 snaps = 72.9 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread +3.0 -> rush-rate x0.99 -> carries x1.00
opponent SEA allows rush-rate 0.32 (lg 0.42) -> x0.96
Jaxon Smith-Njigbareceiving yards 50+STRONG
odds it hits 93% model first guess 100%buy for 87¢ gap 2¢ 76 tradedour call vs price +0.19-in-10 safe line 29.9 · low guess 87.8
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 2.2263/snap x 58 snaps = 128.1 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread -3.0 -> rush-rate x1.01 -> carries x1.00
opponent YAC/rec allowed 5.9 -> x1.02
Luther Burden IIIreceiving yards 20+STRONG
odds it hits 93% model first guess 100%buy for 89¢ gap 4¢ 1.5k tradedour call vs price +0.09-in-10 safe line 12.2 · low guess 35.9
why we picked this (4)
EB rate 1.3890/snap x 47 snaps = 65.8 (n=7)
band from 7 scaled game-days
script: spread +3.0 -> rush-rate x0.99 -> carries x1.00
opponent YAC/rec allowed 4.0 -> x0.98