last settle (2026-11-01)+$122.72
cumulative (paper)+$122.72
open tickets0
latest board certain/strong18 / 10
price archive days3
Open book
| No open tickets — everything is settled or none placed yet. |
Latest certified board (certain + strong, ask<97, ACTIVE)
| certainty-2026-W08 2026-11-02 17:19 · certainty-2026-W08.json |
|---|
| player | market | strike | 90% ceiling | ask | tier | |
|---|
| Rome Odunze | rec_yds over | 30.0 | — | 64¢ | CERTAIN | BOUGHT |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 80.0 | — | 67¢ | CERTAIN | BOUGHT |
| Rome Odunze | rec_yds over | 25.0 | — | 72¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 70.0 | — | 75¢ | CERTAIN | |
| D'Andre Swift | rush_yds over | 40.0 | — | 75¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Luther Burden III | rec_yds over | 30.0 | — | 78¢ | CERTAIN | BOUGHT |
| Rome Odunze | rec_yds over | 20.0 | — | 79¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 60.0 | — | 82¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Luther Burden III | recs over | 3.0 | — | 82¢ | CERTAIN | BOUGHT |
| Cooper Kupp | rec_yds over | 10.0 | — | 83¢ | CERTAIN | BOUGHT |
| Luther Burden III | rec_yds over | 25.0 | — | 83¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Rome Odunze | rec_yds over | 15.0 | — | 85¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Rome Odunze | recs over | 2.0 | — | 85¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | recs over | 5.0 | — | 86¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 50.0 | — | 87¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Luther Burden III | rec_yds over | 20.0 | — | 89¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | recs over | 4.0 | — | 95¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Luther Burden III | recs over | 2.0 | — | 95¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Emanuel Wilson | rush_yds over | 20.0 | — | 52¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 90.0 | — | 60¢ | STRONG | |
| Kalif Raymond | recs over | 2.0 | — | 65¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 100.0 | — | 50¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | recs over | 7.0 | — | 59¢ | STRONG | |
| Luther Burden III | rec_yds over | 40.0 | — | 67¢ | STRONG | |
| Cooper Kupp | rec_yds over | 15.0 | — | 76¢ | STRONG | |
| D'Andre Swift | carries over | 15.0 | — | 69¢ | STRONG | BOUGHT |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | recs over | 6.0 | — | 75¢ | STRONG | |
| AJ Barner | rec_yds over | 10.0 | — | 85¢ | STRONG | |
Settled days
| day | positions | wins | day net | cumulative |
|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 16 (12W) | +$122.72 | +$122.72 |
Edge & calibration
settled single-market positions: 14 | archive tickers matched: 0
fill band n hit avg fill edge pts
70-79 3 1.00 77.3 +22.7
80-89 3 0.67 84.0 -17.3
90+ 1 1.00 90.0 +10.0
<70 7 0.86 55.5 +30.3
Brier (implied from fill): 0.1728 (lower better; 0.25 = coin)
Verdict: sizing decision due when 4 weeks of these tables exist (roadmap 2026-12-01).| stat | 90% factor | n obs |
|---|
| carries | 0.735 | 4132 |
| rec_yds | 0.340 | 14859 |
| recs | 0.640 | 14859 |
| rush_yds | 0.580 | 4132 |
| targets | 0.835 | 14859 |
| fit | value |
|---|
| fitted | 2026-11-03 |
| prob shrink | −0.048 @ ≥0.9 |
| source sha | 1cd297ded7752e1a… |
Pipeline
| leg | artifact | age |
|---|
| nightly feature build | playerweeks_2026.csv | 0h ago |
| live status pull | live_status-latest.json | 0h ago |
| price journal (latest) | prices-2026-11-09.jsonl | 0h ago |
| latest board file | certainty-2026-W08.json | 15h ago |
| latest settle | settle-2026-11-01.json | 1h ago |
| projections (latest) | projections-2026-W08.json | 16h ago |
Doctrine
- Paper only · autonomous pre-kickoff placement · hold to settlement.
- CERTAIN = empirically ≥90% (per-stat calibrated ceiling, f×p10) → $30.
- STRONG = band position, empirically ~75–88% → $20; doctrine floor is 70%.
- Rung down the strike until only injury can beat it, even when certainty prices expensive.
- Caps: $75/player, $150/game. Every aggregate recomputed from per-game boxes.